It is very important for KIO leaders to choose next step. The regime will soon pressure for a black and white answer. Will KIO leaders really represent the voices of Kachin people? Most surveys and discussions indicate "NO" answer. I think it is not a good idea to change KIA to even "State Security Force". Transforming to "State Security Force" should only be considered after securing the autonomy and the rights of the Kachin people. We hate the war and its consequences. But if there is no way out and KIA is forced to defend, the enemy should remember Kachins earned the name "the amiable assassins".
Possible outcomes:
If KIO says "YES":
- an armed group that safeguard the rights and livelihood of Kachins will be lost forever.
- the struggle of our forefathers will be in vain (nyep myi prwi, du daw sai hkaw ai lam ni)
- KIO will lost face to all Kachin public
- Regime will have control over all borders areas
- KIA will follow the path of Kachin 1, Kachin 2 under former Burmese military.
- Increase of forced labors, rapes, restrictions and economic activities
- Chinese's pipeline plan will be implemented sooner.
- the leverage for future dialogues will be lower
If KIO says "NO":
- KIO/A becomes once again the hope of Kachin freedom and shows that it really represents people.
- the freedom struggle will still be alive.
- honors the lost lives of our past leaders and soldiers
- shows that it still stands on the principles it had founded.
- The regime may not be able to actually start the war because of its many enemies fronts (democratic forces, other armed forces such as USWA, KNU, SSA, KOKANG)
Worst case scenario:
- the war breaks out between the regime and KIA.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
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